Proactive security of supply through dynamic simulation with self-learning LLM agents (PROVIDER)

Agricultural supply and distribution systems are among the most sensitive areas of modern economies, yet they are often inadequately monitored and analyzed. They usually fall outside traditional definitions of critical infrastructure and are highly dependent on external shocks, such as extreme weather events, geopolitical conflicts, trade restrictions, or energy and input crises. Recent years have shown that disruptions in individual production or logistics stages, e.g., in fertilizers, animal feed, energy, or operationally critical inputs such as AdBlue, can quickly trigger cascading effects along the entire agricultural value chain. These effects not only affect agricultural production but also have a direct impact on prices, availability, and security of supply in Germany and Europe. Traditional, predominantly retrospective analysis tools reach their limits when it comes to mapping these dynamic, cross-sectoral relationships.

Against this backdrop, the PROVIDER research consortium (Proactive Supply Security through Dynamic Simulation with Self-Learning LLM Agents) aims to develop an innovative methodology for the early identification and assessment of supply risks. PROVIDER combines dynamically generated knowledge graphs, agent-based simulations, and large language models that continuously evaluate current events from news and data sources and convert them into simulation-based forecasts. Unlike static scenarios or post-hoc analyses, PROVIDER enables continuous, proactive monitoring of complex delivery and supply systems and makes potential bottlenecks and their cascade effects visible at an early stage. The approach also explicitly targets critical goods and services outside traditional KRITIS sectors, including agricultural production and input markets.

Within the PROVIDER network, IAK Agrar Consulting GmbH is responsible for the sub-project “Agricultural supply chains and practical transfer for resilient supply simulations.” IAK contributes its many years of expertise in the analysis of agricultural markets, value and supply chains, and international project work to the development of the overall system. IAK's central tasks are the technical preparation and curation of agricultural operating, market, and structural data, the development of domain-specific ontologies and risk indicators, and the derivation and validation of realistic evaluation and crisis scenarios for the agricultural sector. A particular focus is on the analysis of critical resources and inputs, such as fertilizers, feed, energy, and AdBlue, and their interactions with agricultural production and logistics in Germany. The results are translated into practice-oriented consulting tools, guidelines, and digital applications, thus making a direct contribution to strengthening the resilience of agricultural supply systems. 

The lead partner is OFFIS e.V. – Institute for Information Technology in Oldenburg. In addition to IAK Agrar Consulting GmbH, the members of the consortium include the Institute for Applied Informatics e.V. (InfAI), Chemnitz University of Technology, Leuphana University Lüneburg, and DATEV eG.